Calculated Risks has ratings and 46 reviews. Gerd Gigerenzer möchte uns mit seinem Buch “Das Einmaleins der Skepsis” zwei wichtige Dinge vermitteln. Buy a cheap copy of Calculated Risks: How to Know When book by Gerd Gigerenzer. In the tradition of Innumeracy by John Allen Paulos, German scientist . 7 May The Hardcover of the Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You by Gerd Gigerenzer at Barnes & Noble. FREE Shipping on.

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Ma garantisco che lo stesso materiale io l’avrei condensato in duecento pagine. Lawyers will confuse juries, judges, reporters, and themselves calculated risks gerd gigerenzer what a person having a match to crime scene DNA means about that person’s likelihood of guilt.

This book suggests that if we use more of absolute risk reduction or number needed to treat and less of relative risk reduction, risk communication can be more graceful. View Full Version of PW.

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You – Gerd Gigerenzer – Google Books

There are all sorts of things that can generate a false positive result. Oct 21, Francisco Peredo rated it it was amazing.

In this book, professor Gigerenzer says risk innumeracy stems more from representation of risks rather than from one’s IQ.

I used to believe, but the author shook my firm believe in this. A critic of the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, he argues that heuristics should not lead us to conceive of human thinking as riddled with irrational cognitive biases, but rather to conceive rationality as an adaptive tool that is not identical to calculated risks gerd gigerenzer rules of formal logic or the probability calculus.

The premise of this non-fiction is that people, in their quest for certainty particularly in medicineare not paying attention to what the data is truly saying- which is that there is not as much certainty in medicine as they believe. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. This should be required reading for physicians, policy makers and project calculated risks gerd gigerenzer, they have too many critical decisions to make to be deceived by the illusion of certainty.

For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. Gigerenzer is on a crusade to reform the way in which probabilities are reported by the calculated risks gerd gigerenzer and medical professions. This awfulness is thrust upon the general public, and it has lead to wrongful imprisonment, unnecessary surgeries, and suicides.

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He makes an overblown case calculated risks gerd gigerenzer Oct 23, Jean rated it liked it. Although we are living in the era of so-called “big data”, most people are still surprisingly incapable of understanding uncertainties in their situations and making decisions out of it.

Then, if a test shows positive, how probable is it to actually have a cancer? Furthermore, people assume that administering a second test will eliminate all doubts.

This is particularly problematic when it comes to medical problems, which this book mostly concentrates on; mammography and HIV tests are taken as examples, and the author’s demonstration calculatwd how misinterpreted these tests are by doctors and the general public came as a great shock to me.

The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. And the result cxlculated that out of one hundred who gere drug A, 6 patients were cured. We hear LOTS of statistics in the media when reporting news on our health, politics, calculated risks gerd gigerenzer, etc.

Now look calculated risks gerd gigerenzer this book’s copyright. Anche gli esempi sono scelti in maniera da interessare: This means that on average, out of every 2 people who test positive, only 1 has the virus, and not the other.

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You by Gerd Gigerenzer

calculated risks gerd gigerenzer Want to Read Currently Reading Read. May 30, Irio rated it really liked it. All innumerates—buyers, sellers, students, professors, doctors, patients, lawyers and their clients, politicians, voters, writers and readers—have something to learn calculated risks gerd gigerenzer Gigerenzer’s quirky—yet understandable—book.

This book is a shortcut to statistical numeracy. Jul 18, Marcelle rated it really liked it Shelves: To see what your friends thought of this book, please sign up. Yes, important stuff and this book exhaustively and minutely explores these errors in risk calculation and communication.

This books gives some good advice for the layman on how to correctly interpret the information. Mich hat dieses Buch sehr fasziniert und begeistert. The author persuasively argues that ineffective presentations using relative or single-event probabilities clouds the mind of readers including medical and law professionals and induces misleading perspectives. I’d read about probabilistic and natural frequencies before, but until now, I’d never realised what those claims made about the reliability of DNA fingerprinting matches really implied, and how ambiguous the numbers About everyday calculated risks gerd gigerenzer which require people to make decisions based on statistics, and the way those statistics are badly misunderstood and miscommunicated.

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Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with calculated risks gerd gigerenzer money, our health, and our lives.

Wissenschaftsbuch des Jahres The last few chapters are the weaker part of the book. The author speaks in a gentle and friendly voice, guiding readers into the land of statistics.

Other calcculated – View all Calculated risks: We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity.

A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1, women will reap. This is an extreme case, though! A mere murmuring of the word ‘statistics’ is usually enough to calculated risks gerd gigerenzer one a headache. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to calculated risks gerd gigerenzer the risks gerdd contracting breast cancer to a woman calculatec received a positive result from a screening.

Even professionals doctors, people in the legal system, social workers get confused between different kinds of probabilities.

He claims that the reason why general public, even highly educated ones, are susceptible to pitfalls is because risks are presented in probability.

As a math educator, I felt particularly piqued and called to action by the examples in this book. What’s the probability of Gigerenzer’s work becoming a bestseller? But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1, women who do not participate in calculated risks gerd gigerenzer, 4 will die; while out of 1, women who do, 3 will die.

A false positive is a test result that says, ‘yes, the person has the virus,’ when actually the person doesn’t. He clearly calculated risks gerd gigerenzer the REASON people are often confused by statistical risk calculations and defines appropriate and immediately applicable solutions to help our society become numerate the mathematical equivalent of being literate and capable of making our own decisions about what risks we are willing to take in regards to health screenings mammograms, HIV testing, etc.

But what if there are 2 million people in the city matching the other characteristics of the suspect?